He could appoint as Prime Minister Sergei Tigipko

Viktor Yanukovich, credited yesterday of 49 of the vote and which should therefore be declared the winner of the presidential election Sunday in Ukraine, will have to fight on several fronts in the coming days. His opponent, the current leader of the Government, Yuliya Tymoshenko - lags of three points - should indeed multiply remedies for fraud, which is likely to threaten the official proclamation of the result. Yuliya Tymoshenko has many protected in administrative tribunals. It has also threatened to organize even more massive demonstrations of support during the orange revolution of 2004, she was the face. However, it seems little probable that it gets there, number of supporters of the orange revolution being demobilized or very critical towards it. Perhaps that his fight is lost in advance, yesterday cancelled a press conference intended to denounce the fraud, while the Organization for security and cooperation in Europe (OSCE) welcomed the transparency of the poll.

Reassure investors

Viktor Yanukovich, for its part, will try to form a Government reassures investors and Western States, since it is generally qualified an unconditional ally of the Kremlin and is deemed not to know much to the economy. He could appoint as Prime Minister Sergei Tigipko. This last was once the Central Bank Governor and Minister for the economy, before a career of a banker who was one of the richest men in the country. With 13 of the vote in the first round of the presidential election, it has a good political capital and a reputation for pragmatism to Westerners. At fifty years, Sergei Tigipko had always said that he did not campaign to then become Prime Minister of the future winner, but he could not resist the temptations of power.

A mortgage however: Viktor Yanukovich has no majority in Parliament. Even taking into account the rallies members flying to the rescue of victory, it will be difficult to govern, and likely to be forced to dissolve Parliament here in a few months.

Sensitive rebooting

These political uncertainties may impair a Ukrainian economy in great difficulty. A reduction of energy subsidies is required, which can increase social resentment. It will also give quickly committed to the international monetary Fund (IMF). The latter recently stayed the payment of a vital aid due to the unkept promises of Yuliya Tymoshenko. To restart the economy, with growth expected at 2 in 2010, proved fragile after a year 2009 where GDP fell 14. "The month of April will be tense," said Olga Shumylo, Director of the ICPS (international Centre for policy studies) in Kiev, because the deficit is more difficult to finance.

If Yanukovich comes to overcome the remedies before the courts by his pugnacious rival, to form a Government, to obtain a parliamentary majority and reassure the IMF, he will then spend the time that much for a reform of the Constitution restoring the powers of the President, that are cropped off in 2005. It may also work on the definition of a foreign policy of balance between a Kremlin enjoying the failure of the orange revolution and a European Union representing the future of the Ukrainian exporters. Moscow, which, in contrast to 2004, is is kept this time support officially Viktor Yanukovich, would not an evil eye European integration of the Ukraine, which does not threaten its interests as long as it does not prevent it to control the transit of gas in the country.