All this will promote the growth of the market

Sakhalin 2, Qatargas 2, Yemen LNG... One by one, the huge projects for the production of liquefied natural gas (LNG) in recent years are coming on the market. After the Russian site of Sakhalin last February, it will be the turn of the gigantic project Qatargaz 2 to be launched on April 6. A global cost of more than 13 billion dollars, this project will be able to meet him only 20 of Britain's gas needs. Cooled to about 160 degrees and liquefied gas will be sent by boat to the British market every two or three days. Qatar Petroleum, ExxonMobil and Total production will be shared.

American outlet

LNG represents 7 of global demand for natural gas. More flexible than pipelines, this mode of transport has attracted a large buzz of the producing countries and companies. In Total, more than 85 million additional tonnes of capacity of liquefaction should arrive on the market by 2011, an increase of 40 over existing capabilities.

As of 2009, the increase may be about 60 million tonnes. This calendar is risky. Because of the crisis, these updates in service may not be absorbed by the market, even if they are based in part on contracts long term.

"Short term, the LNG market is facing overcapacity of production." "It will likely be a buyer until 2011-2012 market", said Armelle Lecarpentier, Cedigaz analyst. Even speech among the engineering Technip company. For his boss, Thierry Pilenko, liquefied natural gas market will be a period of overcapacity in the coming two to three years.

Total does not have this vision. The French oil tanker believes that the US market will be a likely market of LNG surpluses in the years to come. "U.S. gas producers have established stroke of sudden brake of drilling activities, which will result in decreased quite significantly and especially rapid us domestic production," explained analysts the Director of the domestic gas and electricity, Philippe Boisseau, at the presentation of the results.

Moreover, the American "utilities" will increasingly turn to gas to produce electricity to take advantage of lower prices. In Europe, gas buyers should use the flexibility of their long-term contracts to reduce their purchase for the benefit of the LNG volumes. All this will promote the growth of the market.

GDF Suez is less categorical. The world leader in liquefied natural gas cautiously believes that 2009 will be an "atypical" year for LNG... "The United States will be probably less applicants LNG in 2009", says the Vice-President of the Jean-François Cirelli GDF Suez Group. For the latter, U.S. imports will depend largely on the threshold of profitability of unconventional gas. This type of gas, which is not in conventional tanks but in low porous rocks, accounted for 45 of us production in 2007.

Independent producers

"What is the threshold of profitability of this activity." "You see different figures circulated on the subject," explains Jean-François Cirelli. In fact, its operation remains essentially carried out by independent producers. They are the ones who developed the fragmentation and horizontal drilling technologies that helped make the exploitation of unconventional gas.

These innovations have made the only unpredictable also reactive market. In 2005, experts projected an average growth of demand for LNG from 13 per annum by 2020 North America. In 2008, U.S. LNG imports declined by about 60, after having increased by 36 the previous year.