The Government and Brussels are still to convince

His arrival at the head of the SNCF in the spring of 2008, Guillaume Pepy decreed for the railway a "growth strategy". A year later, the latter has disappeared with the crisis. The turnover of the public group appears in the first quarter of 2009 in withdrawal of 7.5 over the same period of last year, 5,643 billion euros. A performance which should rapidly lead the SNCF to revise downward its ambitions for 2009. According to our information, the next Board of Directors at the end of the month will be an opportunity to ratify a revision of the annual budget, which included until then an increase of 7 of the activity, with expected revenues to about 27 billion euros.

All branches of the public group are not equal before the crisis. The pole (TER) proximities takes advantage of the rise in regional traffic, which increase its turnover of 2.7 to EUR 1.56 billion. Infrastructure activity remains almost stable at 1,028 billion euros. However, the cash cow of the accounts of the company TGV significantly suffers the economic downturn: travel industry saw its revenues erode 2.3, to EUR 1.67 billion. Blame to Eurostar the binding speed between Paris, Brussels and London whose turnover suffers indigestible cocktail (crisis, decline of the pound and consequences of the fire in the channel tunnel).

"Stop the bleeding".

For the domestic routes, traffic has been stable in the first quarter ("Les Echos" on May 7). but this would be, according to several sources, the price of a decline in the average tariff, with notably a report of the first to the second class.

The biggest difficulties are before the fact activity transport and logistics. Its revenues have plunged 19 in the first quarter, to EUR 1.65 billion. Recently, his boss Pierre Blayau spoke of "tsunami" for the carriage of goods. This is particularly true for entity cargo SNCF the main source of losses of the public company which would declined over the period, according to several sources, of 28 of its turnover. For some traffic (automotive, consumer products, coal and steel) the fall would be even included between 45 and 50, and the trend is still degraded in March by report earlier this year.

With such conditions, internal documents raise the possibility of common losses to 600 million euros, against 350 million euros in 2008 ("Les Echos" from April 22).

In these circumstances, the next Committee of SNCF freight facility, in June, becomes crucial for the future of the entity. The Directorate should put its proposals on the table with measures "to stop what it is permitted to call a hemorrhage, which weighs on the accounts of any SNCF", according to Pierre Blayau comments in a recent letter to Didier the rest (CGT).

Documents are currently circulating internally, that evoke the creation of a subsidiary dedicated specifically to the combi-express. Voluntary drivers would apply more flexible working conditions, furiously resembling those in the social reform of the cargo, eventually remained on the dock last November. Other subsidiaries may follow this model, especially for the grain market. Last track in the corridors, the subsidizing of isolated cars (transport customized and targeted), representing one third of the activity, but 70 of the losses. The Government and Brussels are still to convince.