4 last week by 10 since the beginning of the year

Severely abused in the spring, the stock markets are Gets a health during a summer yet well ill hired with the start of the conflict in the Lebanon. They also still have the "reserve": indeed, they had little passed down significant and widespread long-term bond yields that occurred since the beginning of the summer (see below).

The CAC 40 index ended Friday on a progression of 0.36, to 5.183,45 points. This week, nearly 20 major French groups (Carrefour, Crédit Agricole, Bouygues, Vivendi, Suez, PPR...) will announce their first-half results, which will not fail to liven up the market. The index grew by 1.4 last week by 10 since the beginning of the year. Index flagship of the French market, which was at its highest history six years ago to the day (read pages 17 and 34), crossed finally not too smooth a summer which could prove to be deadly with accumulation and concentration of risks of diverse nature, geopolitical or financial. Thus, the French rating index reached to grow by 4 between early July and late August.

End of business cycle

This is better than the index entry of the US market, the & Standard Poor's 500, which experienced a summer increase of 2. It is true that the latter is in a situation in other more problematic than his counterpart, with a net slowing economy, a risk of recession which cannot be excluded and a Federal Reserve (Fed), facing an end of good economic cycle difficult to manage. "The Fed needs to be vigilant on credibility because, for the first time in thirty years, it faces a re-inflation phase, even if it remains for the moment embryo," noted Antoine Brunet and Sophie Casanova, strategists in HSBC France. Indeed, since late 2003, underlying inflation rose from 1.2 to 2.2 annual rate and then to 3.5 from February.

"If the Fed had remained passive in the embryonic movement of re-inflation, it would have taken a serious responsibility, one to issue the movement of disinflation dearly acquired in recent years," noted strategists, that "it is still much too early to conclude that either already acquired the significant slowdown that clearly the Fed".

"At the beginning of an economic slowdown, the consensus generally underestimates the loss of growth and, in particular, the extent of the multiplier effect of the initial shock, warns Patrick Artus, Chief Economist of Ixis." According to the latter, a growth point in less us would result in a decrease of 2.5 on average of the profits of European societies and 5.6 of their courses. In other words, a downturn in the United States would be likely to question the dynamics and the upward trend of the European places. This week, the publication of the "Beige Book" will give guidance on the State of the environment and the vision that are members of the Fed, and including inflation.

Status quo to the ECB

Friday, the announcement of a less strong progression that anticipated the average hourly wage in the United States, in August to $ 16.79, or an increase of 0.1 on a month, less than the expectations of analysts, who projected on 0.3, was good news for the Fed, because it validates the bet that the slowdown in growth will help to contain inflationary. This announcement benefited bond markets, which rose again during the past week and still appear in powerful upward dynamics which characterizes them since the end of the month of June. Thus, one week on the other, the performance of the French OAT to 10 years in reference is folded 3.80-3.74. At the same time, the U.S. 2-year rate declined 4.85 to 4.75, while the performance of the T-bonds to 10 years evolved from 4.77 to 4.72.

Turn the European Central Bank, which has opted for a status quo at its meeting of Thursday, is in no less prepared minds a new increase in the rate of interest, probably in October. More than its absolute level, it is the recent dynamics of growth on the old Continent that justifies the prudence of the Institute of issue.